MA461 Fall 2000 Discussion Topic #6

Topic: The Misuse of Statistics

Leaders: Josh Graves and Jason Potratz

Readings:

The first reading is good for a general idea of what the subject is all about. The second reading is dealing with a lot of other issues as well, but provides a good example of how the misuse of statistics could have a great effect on our country.

1. "Even If the Numbers Don't Add Up", Holmes, Steven A, New York Times. (Aug. 14, '94). p. 5, (sec 4).

2 "A Feminist Camelot: Clinton Administration's Misuse of Statistics to Set Government Policy", Sommers, Christina Hoff. National Review, vol. 48. (Sept. 2 1996). p. 74.

Introduction:

How often do we hear somebody trying to persuade us using a statistic, especially this time of year? Violent crime is down 15%. The economy has improved 10% in the last five years. Car number 1 is more dangerous because 50% of all crashes are roll-overs, compared to only 5% in car number 2. But what exactly do these numbers mean? What exactly does it mean when you say the economy has improved? What exactly does it mean when you say crime is down? How do you know that crimes aren't just being reported more often? May be the total number of crashes in car number one is only half as many as in car number 2. These numbers can be very persuasive when somebody is trying to persuade you, but are they also sometimes misleading?

Possible Discussion Directions and Questions:

1. How trusting are you of statistics quoted by politicians, commercials, etc? Do you accept them as absolute fact, dismiss them immediately, or are you somewhere in between?

2. Can you recall any cases where you heard conflicting reports, one side quotes one number, and the other quotes a number that would lead you to the opposite conclusion?

3.Have there been any statistics that have influenced your opinion one way or another in the upcoming election?

Schedule:

Introduction distributed by Thursday, November 9, 2:50 PM

Individual initial posts by Tuesday. November 14.

Open discussion period: Wednesday, November 15 to Wednesday, November 22.

Summary posted by, Tuesday, November 28.